This article explains the history of how Germany got into its current situation of energy dependency of Russia, which was very interesting reading, but it paints a picture of German Ostpolitik as largely a failure, and I'm not so sure I agree with that. The article reminds us that Ostpolitik didn't stop Russia from invading Georgia in 2008 or Ukraine in 2014 (and again this year), but the article also claims it had little to do with the dissolution of the USSR.
German journalist Thomas Urban, author of a new book critiquing Ostpolitik, believes its role in the fall of the wall and German reunification has been exaggerated: “It was military buildup by Reagan and the flooding of the market with cheap oil that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union,” he told me. The Russian government budget had grown so dependent on energy for its revenue, he said, that when the price of oil plummeted in the mid-1980s, Russia’s lifeline to external capital dried up. “Gorbachev could no longer fund the overseas wars and the Soviet Republics,” he said. “But this argument was entirely missing in the German debate, especially on the left.”
Well how did the USSR become so very vulnerable to falling energy prices? Largely because it was exporting so much gas and oil to Western Europe, especially Germany! Let's not overcorrect an oversimplification by oversimplifying too far in the other direction. In addition, (as the article just briefly mentions,) Ostpolitic helped secure cheap energy for German industry, helping make the country the industrial powerhouse it is today.
Gazprom would also take over Germany’s gas storage business, thereby handing control of German energy reserves to a foreign power.
Now this, however, seems like a major blunder, and I wish the article would have gone into detail about it. I have problems imagining that the German state or industry would hand Gazprom such control easily, especially after the 2009 gas disputes with Ukraine. Surely they must have realised this would make the country a lot more vulnerable to Putin's whims.
Great article, thanks for posting! Really appreciated all the historical quotes and details that the author researched and incorporated.
Well how did the USSR become so very vulnerable to falling energy prices?
This is true, but it seems plausible to me that the Soviet Union may have gone bankrupt even sooner if not for all of the gas and oil exports to Germany and others. After all, what other options would the Soviet Union really have had for such lucrative exports?
Now this, however, seems like a major blunder, and I wish the article would have gone into detail about it.
Yes, agreed! Ostpolitic at least makes logical sense and I'm sure works to a certain extent (maybe even to a great extent over a long enough time horizon) but giving up control of their energy reserves just sounds flat out crazy.
This article explains the history of how Germany got into its current situation of energy dependency of Russia, which was very interesting reading, but it paints a picture of German Ostpolitik as largely a failure, and I'm not so sure I agree with that. The article reminds us that Ostpolitik didn't stop Russia from invading Georgia in 2008 or Ukraine in 2014 (and again this year), but the article also claims it had little to do with the dissolution of the USSR.
Well how did the USSR become so very vulnerable to falling energy prices? Largely because it was exporting so much gas and oil to Western Europe, especially Germany! Let's not overcorrect an oversimplification by oversimplifying too far in the other direction. In addition, (as the article just briefly mentions,) Ostpolitic helped secure cheap energy for German industry, helping make the country the industrial powerhouse it is today.
Now this, however, seems like a major blunder, and I wish the article would have gone into detail about it. I have problems imagining that the German state or industry would hand Gazprom such control easily, especially after the 2009 gas disputes with Ukraine. Surely they must have realised this would make the country a lot more vulnerable to Putin's whims.
Great article, thanks for posting! Really appreciated all the historical quotes and details that the author researched and incorporated.
This is true, but it seems plausible to me that the Soviet Union may have gone bankrupt even sooner if not for all of the gas and oil exports to Germany and others. After all, what other options would the Soviet Union really have had for such lucrative exports?
Yes, agreed! Ostpolitic at least makes logical sense and I'm sure works to a certain extent (maybe even to a great extent over a long enough time horizon) but giving up control of their energy reserves just sounds flat out crazy.