It might be an incomplete picture, but we are already working with it and getting good results. Humans (intelligent ones at least) excel in decision making while not having all possible data. This researcher is ranting about it but not proposing solutions in the near term. We don’t know what is going to happen, but again, me have never known and will never know
This really puts into perspective just how incomplete a picture we have of this whole situation. Really important to keep in mind when new statistics are getting thrown around every day and the negative impacts of the mitigation efforts seem to be growing and expanding as fast as the disease itself.
“How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm?“. We need the data. And to that point, we need a heck of a lot more testing. This is the opportunity in front of us. Gather more reliable data and understand how many are affected. With that, reasonable policy can be implemented.
Agreed. I wonder what adequate data acquisition would look like in practice. If we were well prepared with test kits and bio-hazard suits would sample gatherers need to randomly test the general public in order to get quality data? I could imagine that would freak a lot of people out a bit (including myself) but it would seem preferable to what we're dealing with now.
Highly recommended to read. It may sound unpopular but from a mathematical point of view a lot of this makes sense to me.
This for example:
A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.
It’s definitely something that has been on my mind. But then again I’m one of those rational over-thinkers...
Glad you enjoyed it. I’m surprised how well this was received here and it shows that the audience here might apply a bit more thought than the average joe. I’ve shared this on Facebook in a group and most people didn’t seem to understand maths and hence found it pretty unpopular. But to me all these question seem so relevant. Maybe not nice to think of the consequences but still, that’s how leaders of countries need to approach this.
I’m surprised how well this was received here and it shows that the audience here might apply a bit more thought than the average joe. I’ve shared this on Facebook in a group and most people didn’t seem to understand maths and hence found it pretty unpopular.
✌️🤓 lol, I think Readup might be attracting some naturally “dorky” people (I say that with love; I’m a huge dork) but also, it’s the way this was built to encourage deeper, slower thinking.
It might be an incomplete picture, but we are already working with it and getting good results. Humans (intelligent ones at least) excel in decision making while not having all possible data. This researcher is ranting about it but not proposing solutions in the near term. We don’t know what is going to happen, but again, me have never known and will never know
This really puts into perspective just how incomplete a picture we have of this whole situation. Really important to keep in mind when new statistics are getting thrown around every day and the negative impacts of the mitigation efforts seem to be growing and expanding as fast as the disease itself.
“How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm?“. We need the data. And to that point, we need a heck of a lot more testing. This is the opportunity in front of us. Gather more reliable data and understand how many are affected. With that, reasonable policy can be implemented.
Agreed. I wonder what adequate data acquisition would look like in practice. If we were well prepared with test kits and bio-hazard suits would sample gatherers need to randomly test the general public in order to get quality data? I could imagine that would freak a lot of people out a bit (including myself) but it would seem preferable to what we're dealing with now.
It would freak me out too but I would prefer that we did have a much larger group of people getting tested in order to get quality data.
Highly recommended to read. It may sound unpopular but from a mathematical point of view a lot of this makes sense to me. This for example:
It’s definitely something that has been on my mind. But then again I’m one of those rational over-thinkers...
Great find. Great read. Thanks!
Glad you enjoyed it. I’m surprised how well this was received here and it shows that the audience here might apply a bit more thought than the average joe. I’ve shared this on Facebook in a group and most people didn’t seem to understand maths and hence found it pretty unpopular. But to me all these question seem so relevant. Maybe not nice to think of the consequences but still, that’s how leaders of countries need to approach this.
Oh man! Thanks, Florian!
✌️🤓 lol, I think Readup might be attracting some naturally “dorky” people (I say that with love; I’m a huge dork) but also, it’s the way this was built to encourage deeper, slower thinking.
A perspective that I had not seen before...