Interesting. I think Bitecofer is 100% right to focus on turnout versus swing. That actually seems obvious and undeniable.

“I am arguing radical shit, OK?” Bitecofer told me over a series of phone calls over the past several weeks in her Virginia office. “What I am saying is that almost all of this shit is set in stone for three years, that almost none of the shit that people are hanging onto, in terms of daily articles, or polls, or the economy or incumbency or ideology is really worth that much.”

I don’t think that that’s “radical.” In fact, I think that that’s what almost everyone (who doesn’t work in politics) thinks.